Chinese estate bubble is assuming American monetary policy should continue const

From;    Author:Stand originally

Domestic month does not fall higher than residing for income

Ha Jiming thinks in the report, the germ of American epicycle crisis was 2001 after IT bubble is undone, beautiful couplet store to resist economic depression and lower interest considerably, comfortable interest rate condition stimulated room city bubble, and the finance that emerge in endlessly is derived article quickened foamy to expand again, final bubble is undone cause financial crisis.

Ha Jiming expresses, the photograph of estate bubble degree that China goes a few years compares American go even farther than. And according to be opposite in this report the investigation data of a few main cities of Chinese is analysed, average month income was the family of example city 2008 6453 yuan, and below eye anteroom price domestic month offers income 75% more breathtaking than was being achieved, house price needs to drop 42% ability make the month comes than falling for income 40% ; Even if of before be being ranked to income 60% in good-paying family, the income of average household month 2008 also has 9311 yuan only, month of the family below price of anteroom of eye of this part crowd also is as high as 54% for income comparing, house price needs to drop 19% ability make its month comes than falling for income 40% . See accordingly, the bubble of estate changes rate quite tall.

Real estate glides is bank cherish is borrowed advocate because of

Is house property bubble of the United States undone what kind of caution to leave China? To this, the Lu Zheng of center of carry of battalion of financing of the bank that start line of business appoint point out, from the point of progress of whole and macroscopical economy, the biggest risk that China faces now is two -- one is external economy condition, namely the disorder of at present money market and global economy glide; And another risk is domestic real estate. He thinks the government should be careful evaluate estate market, take positive step, the stable health that maintains estate market develops.

Lu Zheng appoint think, at present more popular notion is see consumption from estate, see its from consumption again the influence to economy, but proper perspective should be the balance sheet that reads financial orgnaization from estate, once the balance sheet is exasperate, so industry financing condition is exasperate, photograph comparing consumption, should get greatly to economic blow much, even if consumption does not go weak, hypostatic economy also can worsen all the same.

Those who speak of domestic estate market is dispirited, lu Zheng appoint point out afraidly, "If estate glides generally 10% the left and right sides, the bad Zhang rate of the bank can rise significantly, the cherish that the exasperate meeting of the balance sheet lets bank occurrence extreme is serious borrows a mood, this may endanger hypostatic economy. This may endanger hypostatic economy..

It is not certain that the room shifts a test accurate report risk
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